Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a second consecutive day of declines, falling below $91,000 on Thursday evening, driven by risk-averse sentiment following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut accompanied by hawkish signals. Despite the prevailing downward pressure, on-chain data indicates a weakening of selling pressure, suggesting a possible recovery for the leading cryptocurrency in the coming days.
Fed's Cautious Rate Cut Weighs on Risk Assets
Bitcoin's price saw a slight decrease, closing at $92,015 on Wednesday, shortly after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As anticipated, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75% after the two-day policy meeting, while also hinting at a potential pause in rate cuts in January.
Increased market caution arose as policymakers projected only one 0.25 percentage point cut in 2026, aligning with their September outlook. This forecast dampened investor expectations of two cuts within the year, creating short-term pressure on risk assets.
The Fed's "hawkish" rate cut and cautious stance triggered widespread risk aversion. This effect was amplified by Oracle's disappointing after-hours earnings, leading to increased caution toward risk assets. Consequently, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000.
On-Chain Data Suggests Reduced Selling Pressure
A weekly report from CryptoQuant revealed a noticeable decrease in Bitcoin selling pressure.
- The report indicated a continued decline in BTC deposits to exchanges as major investors reduced asset transfers to trading platforms.
- Data showed a significant drop in deposit ratios from "large players," from an average of 47% in mid-November to 21% on Wednesday.
- The average deposit size also decreased by 36%, from 1.1 BTC on November 22 to 0.7 BTC.
Notably, downward pressure also eased as both large and short-term investors continued to realize losses. Charts showed that on November 13, when Bitcoin initially broke through $100,000, both new and old "whales" experienced their largest losses since July, totaling $646 million. Since then, their total realized net losses have reached $3.2 billion. Simultaneously, short-term investors maintained a selling position with negative profit since mid-November (SOPR < 1), reaching a low of -7%. Market history suggests that selling pressure typically decreases when investors are forced to accept significant losses.
CryptoQuant suggests that if selling pressure remains low, a recovery could push Bitcoin back to the $99,000 range – the lower bound of the Trader On-chain Realized Price and a typical resistance area during bear markets. Above that, key resistance levels lie at $102,000 (1-year moving average) and $112,000 (Trader On-chain Realized Price).
Other Positive Signals from ETFs
Institutional demand for Bitcoin showed a slight improvement. According to SoSoValue data, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $223.52 million on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive inflows for the week. For BTC to continue its recovery, ETF inflows need to accelerate further.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Rejected at Key Resistance
Bitcoin was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 (measured from the April low of $74,508 to the all-time high of $126,199 in October) during Wednesday's trading session, before experiencing a slight decline shortly thereafter. As of Thursday evening, BTC remained under pressure, fluctuating downward around $90,300.
If the correction persists, the next key support area lies at $85,569, coinciding with the 78.6% Fibonacci level – a zone that could play a crucial role in determining the return of buying power.
The daily RSI indicator currently stands at 44, below the neutral threshold of 50 and continuing to decline, reflecting the increasingly evident weakening momentum of the bulls.
Conversely, should BTC recover and close back above the $94,253 resistance area, the $100,000 psychological level will become the next important point of observation for the market.
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