The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a 25-basis point interest rate reduction, its third this year, aligning with market expectations. As is typical before FOMC meetings, Bitcoin's price surged past $94,000 on Monday. However, the "hawkish" interpretation of the Fed's move suggests internal disagreements regarding monetary policy and the U.S. economic outlook.
Given the "hawkish" label attached to this rate cut, Bitcoin's price may face selling pressure upon the news release and trade within a narrow range until fresh market catalysts emerge.
According to CNBC, the Fed's 9-3 vote outcome reflects members' concerns about persistent inflation, potentially slowing economic growth and future rate cut progress in 2026.
Glassnode data indicates Bitcoin remains constrained below $100,000, with its trading range limited by the short-term holder cost basis at $102,700 and the "Realized Cap" at $81,300.
Additionally, on-chain metrics are weakening, futures demand is declining, and selling pressure persists, preventing Bitcoin from surpassing the $100,000 threshold.
Key Takeaways:
- A structurally weak price zone keeps Bitcoin consistently below $100,000, leading to increasing unrealized losses.
- Realized losses have spiked to $555 million per day, the highest since the FTX collapse in 2022.
- Significant profit-taking by long-term holders (over 1 year) and capitulation by major buyers are hindering the recapture of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH-Cost Basis).
- The Fed's rate cut may not be sufficient to significantly boost Bitcoin's price in the short term.
- Time is running out for Bitcoin to recover to the $100,000 level.
According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin's inability to break through $100,000 reflects increasing structural stress: time is against the buyers. Prolonged stays in the weak price zone accumulate unrealized losses, increasing the risk of forced selling.
The Relative Unrealized Loss indicator (30-day SMA) has risen to 4.4%, ending two years of consistently staying below 2% and signaling a shift towards more stressed market conditions. Despite Bitcoin's recovery from its November 22 low to nearly $92,700, entity-adjusted realized losses continue to escalate, reaching $555 million per day, similar to levels seen during the FTX collapse.
Notably, long-term holders (holding for over 1 year) have realized over $1 billion per day in profits, peaking at a record $1.3 billion. The capitulation of major buyers combined with strong profit-taking from long-term holders may have prevented Bitcoin from overcoming key cost basis levels, particularly the $95,000 - $102,000 resistance zone limiting market gains.
Spot Market Drives Gains While BTC Futures Weaken
According to CryptoQuant data, cryptocurrency markets typically experience price increases before FOMC meetings, but this time, a clear divergence emerged: Bitcoin's price increased while open interest (OI) decreased.
OI has steadily declined during the correction since October, and even after Bitcoin bottomed on November 21, OI continued to fall despite price recovery to new highs. This suggests the current rally is primarily driven by spot demand rather than leveraged speculation.
CryptoQuant suggests that while spot-driven rallies tend to be sustainable, maintaining long-term growth momentum requires increased leveraged positions. With derivatives volume dominating, spot volume only accounts for approximately 10% of total derivatives activity, potentially hindering the market's ability to sustain the uptrend if rate cut expectations weaken as the meeting date approaches.
Market Focuses on BTC and ETH as Altcoins Lose Traction Amid Macro Uncertainty
Standard Chartered lowered its 2025 Bitcoin price target to $100K and set a $500K target for 2030.
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