Puffpaw Price Prediction: What will Puffpaw FDV be one day after launch?

Puffpaw has generated over $12M in revenue and is one of the few DePIN projects that combines hardware, blockchain, and a revenue-generating business model.

With its unique vape-to-earn narrative and growing attention ahead of TGE, a key question emerges: What will Puffpaw’s FDV look like just one day after token launch?

Puffpaw Overview

Puffpaw Definition

Puffpaw is a DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure networks) project built on the Berachain blockchain. Puffpaw focuses on smart hardware products integrated with blockchain technology to gamify nicotine reduction through a vape-to-earn model.

Users purchase smart vapes that track vaping behavior on-chain and earn $VAPE tokens by gradually reducing nicotine intake. The platform emphasizes data privacy, allowing users to retain self-custodial control over their health data.

The project has successfully raised $10M across two funding rounds, including a Seed round backed by VCs and an NFT Puff Pass sale.

What is Puffpaw’s business model and product offering?

Currently, Puffpaw operates several core products:

• Smart Vape: The core smart vaping device, available in multiple versions such as Gen2 Pro. These devices are bundled with NFTs like Puff Pass (Genesis or Gen2) in certain campaigns. The product targets users who want to track usage and earn rewards from vaping habits.
• E-liquid Pods: Refillable flavor pods compatible with the Smart Vape. Each pod includes a smart chip to track usage data.
• NFT Puff Pass: A utility NFT rather than a physical product. Genesis passes are for early users, while Gen2 consists of 30,000 NFTs on Berachain. Each NFT is bundled with one Smart Vape and three pods and can be used for staking, $VAPE airdrops, and participation in vape-to-earn.

The designed loop of the ecosystem is as follows:

• Buy pods
• Use vape
• Reduce nicotine
• Earn $VAPE
• Use $VAPE to buy more pods

The project has also reported strong pod sales metrics:

• Pods Revenue: $12.7M from over 340,000 pods sold. This is the primary revenue driver, as pod prices range from $20 to $50 per box and users repurchase monthly.
• Devices: Over 141,000 Gen2 Pro devices sold, priced around $100 to $200 each, contributing to initial revenue.

Overall, Puffpaw stands out as one of the few projects with a distinct narrative and real revenue generated directly from its business model.

What will Puffpaw FDV be one day after launch?

Sell Pressure at Puffpaw TGE

The project has not published detailed vesting schedules or exact unlock figures. Recent X posts from January to February 2026 only mention the upcoming airdrop registration portal going live on 5/2/2026, without confirming full unlock details.

With a total supply of 100B $VAPE, the current analysis is as follows:

• Mining: 46% of total supply (46B $VAPE) is allocated to mining. This portion will not fully unlock at TGE and will instead be earned gradually through activity, including 36% from vape-to-earn and 10% from DeFi. 
• Remaining supply: The remaining 54%, excluding incentives, is subject to vesting. Tokens allocated to the team, investors, and treasury are locked and will unlock gradually, not at TGE.
• Polymarket Trade Wars allocation: 0.4% of total supply (0.4B $VAPE) is allocated to Trade Wars on Polymarket. These tokens come from the ecosystem incentives pool and are liquid upon receipt with no vesting. The allocation includes 0.2% for top individual traders and 0.2% for top teams based on trading volume, with the campaign running from 12/2025. Winners may sell immediately post-TGE, contributing to potential sell pressure.

In summary, key details still await official confirmation from the project, potentially via a whitepaper or future X posts. If TGE occurs under these assumptions, initial circulating supply will be low, mainly from airdrops, which may help stabilize price while mining supply increases gradually.

FDV comparison with competitors

Below is a comparison of funding and valuation metrics for selected DePIN projects:

Very few projects currently sustain FDVs above $200M despite substantial fundraising. DePIN as a narrative is no longer particularly hot, and Puffpaw’s model provides limited reasons for users to buy tokens beyond usage incentives:

• The token is designed to reward product usage, similar to liquidity mining programs.
• Users can also sell health data to healthcare companies in exchange for $VAPE.

Overall, the token is primarily designed as a reward mechanism and offers limited value accrual for long-term holders. As a result, demand at TGE is likely to be modest.

Polymarket Odds Analysis

Currently, sentiment around the “Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?” market is relatively positive. Implied odds sit at around 72%, indicating that traders broadly expect Puffpaw’s FDV to surpass the $500M threshold shortly after launch. 

This bullish view is reinforced by positioning on Whales Prediction, where larger, more sophisticated traders appear to be leaning toward the upside, suggesting growing confidence among whale-sized participants.

A key strength of the project is its solid revenue base and a relatively gradual mining mechanism, as tokens are released based on user vaping activity rather than a fixed emission rate.

It is estimated that around 5–10% of supply may be sold from NFT buyer airdrops. Current Polymarket odds are as follows:

• FDV > $50M: 72% 
• FDV > $100M: 39%
• FDV > $200M: 15% 
• FDV > $300M: 5%
• FDV > $400M: 3%

Market expectations suggest it is difficult for the project to reach an FDV (fully diluted valuation) above $200M, with only a 39% probability of exceeding $100M.

Based on current market pricing and the analysis above, a potential strategy is:

• Buy YES $50M at 72%
• Buy NO $200M at 15%

This presents a relatively balanced risk-to-reward setup. At an FDV of $50M, the market cap may range from $5M to $15M depending on initial circulating supply. Given the project’s real revenue from vape sales exceeding $12M, a $50M FDV is not difficult to justify.

An estimated 5-10% of initial token supply will likely be allocated to early supporters, which may represent the primary source of sell pressure.

Odds will continue to change approaching 5/2/2026. While vesting details remain undisclosed, the market is likely pricing in two key assumptions:

• Team, VC, and angel investor tokens are locked at TGE.
• Airdrop allocations of 5-10% unlock immediately.
• Mining rewards unlock gradually over time rather than instantly, making them effectively locked at TGE.

For more aggressive strategies, users may consider YES positions above $300M or $400M for the following reasons:

• With low initial supply, the project could potentially pump prices for marketing around its TGE.
• Seeker ($SKR) previously followed a similar approach, increasing nearly 10x after listing before distributing supply gradually.

However, this approach carries a high level of risk and should only involve small capital allocations, as the risk-to-reward profile is approximately 1:10 or 1:20.

Conclusion

Considering real revenue, low initial circulating supply, and a gradual mining unlock mechanism, Puffpaw is most likely to trade within a $50M to $100M FDV range after TGE. The probability of exceeding $200M appears relatively low based on current market pricing.

This setup offers a reasonable risk-to-reward profile for conservative strategies, while higher FDV targets are largely short-term gambles suitable only for investors with high risk tolerance and limited capital exposure.

FAQs 

Q1. What factors influence Puffpaw price prediction after TGE?

Puffpaw price prediction is mainly influenced by initial circulating supply, sell pressure from airdrops, real product revenue, and the gradual mining unlock mechanism.

Q2. Does Puffpaw have real revenue to support its price prediction?

Yes, Puffpaw has generated over $12M in revenue from hardware and pod sales, which provides a stronger fundamental basis compared to many DePIN projects.

Q3. How does token mining impact Puffpaw price prediction?

Mining rewards are released gradually through user activity rather than instantly, which reduces short-term inflation and limits immediate downside pressure on price.

Q4. Is Puffpaw price prediction more suitable for short-term or long-term investors?

Current Puffpaw price prediction suggests better alignment with short-term or mid-term strategies, as the token is primarily designed for utility and rewards rather than long-term holding.

Q5. What is the biggest risk to Puffpaw price prediction at launch?

The main risk comes from airdrop sell pressure and uncertain token demand beyond user incentives, which could cap upside shortly after TGE.