Season 1 of the MetaMask Points Program has officially come to an end. Does this mark a signal for the launch of the MASK token by the project?
This article analyzes the current signals from the Points Program, the market and regulatory environment, and data from Polymarket to assess the likelihood of MetaMask launching a token in 2026 and the most reasonable time window for this event.
MetaMask Overview
MetaMask Wallet Definition
MetaMask is a non-custodial cryptocurrency wallet that allows users to securely hold digital assets and access decentralized applications directly through a web browser interface. The wallet was launched in 2016 by ConsenSys, a blockchain technology company founded by Joseph Lubin, one of Ethereum’s co-founders.
In 2025, MetaMask expanded its ecosystem by integrating new services such as perpetual derivatives trading through Hyperliquid, on-chain prediction markets via Polymarket, and social login features that enable wallet creation using Google or Apple accounts.
MetaMask Points Program Update
Currently, Season 1 of the MetaMask Points Program has ended. This was the first and only season so far, running from 28/10/2025 to 23/1/2026.
However, user sentiment toward this program has been quite negative, as rewards in this season were mainly cash but paid in $LINEA. Weak signals for the TGE of the MASK token have still not appeared.
Season 1 rewards include:
— MetaMask 🦊 (@MetaMask) January 23, 2026
🎁 @LineaBuild $LINEA token allocation
🎁 @nansen_ai Pro discount
🎁 @yugalabs Otherside exclusive avatars
🎁 MetaMask Metal Card - 1 year free
Eligibility varies by level and activity.
MetaMask has long been known for delays, especially during market downturns. The most recent time the CEO of ConsenSys mentioned MetaMask was in 10/2025.
There’s been chatter about a MetaMask rewards leak. Those concepts were early prototypes — not live. But the vision behind them is very real. And it is all about building a token economy.
— Joseph Lubin (@ethereumJoseph) October 6, 2025
MetaMask is building the future of personal finance. We’re designing an experience that… https://t.co/ARa6714wOw
Season 2 is also expected to begin soon, based on announcements on the project’s website. Looking back, Season 1 lasted around 88 days.
- If Season 2 has a similar duration and starts in early February 2026, rewards would not be distributed until early May 2026.
- The possibility that Season 2 rewards will be related to MASK remains uncertain, especially since very few people expected Season 1 rewards to be LINEA tokens instead of MASK tokens.
Will MetaMask launch a token by ?
Some factors related to the launch of $MASK
2026 is expected to be the year of ConsenSys’ IPO, and there is a high probability that $MASK will conduct a TGE to fully benefit from this effect. In 2025, two companies had very successful IPOs.
- Circle 5/6/2025: Circle conducted its IPO in a context where the crypto market was growing strongly, with rising demand for stablecoins and related tokens. Circle’s stock price surged on the first trading day.
- Bullish 8/2025: Bullish conducted an IPO on the NYSE under the ticker BLSH, raising approximately $1.1B. Bullish went public after a period of market recovery and growth, with its stock opening at a high level and showing strong volatility on the first trading day.
Based on these two cases, ConsenSys will likely choose a favorable time window for its IPO, and this timing will likely be closely related to the launch of $MASK.
However, the macro environment remains relatively complex, especially when the market is facing a Trump who is extremely aggressive and capable of taking unpredictable actions.
In addition, the CLARITY Act remains a focal point of disputes between crypto companies and the banking sector, making the overall environment for IPO activity in favorable conditions more challenging.
After reviewing the Senate Banking draft text over the last 48hrs, Coinbase unfortunately can’t support the bill as written.
— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) January 14, 2026
There are too many issues, including:
- A defacto ban on tokenized equities
- DeFi prohibitions, giving the government unlimited access to your financial…
Therefore, it can be concluded that MetaMask is currently operating stably and does not face strong pressure to quickly launch a token for investors, as this project differs from many other crypto projects by being developed directly by ConsenSys.
Meanwhile, the reasons for delaying the token launch are diverse. The regulatory framework is still not truly supportive, the market is in a bear phase, and liquidity is being heavily drawn into other financial channels such as gold, silver, and AI stocks.
Polymarket Odds Analysis
Currently on the "Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?", most investors are relatively pessimistic about the possibility of a token launch before 30/6, with only a 15% probability that this event will occur.
What is the appropriate strategy to participate in this market?
- Buying NO for 30/6 currently offers an R R that is not very attractive. A market recovery in Q2 or early Q3, or liquidity flowing from gold into Bitcoin, could improve market conditions. At that point, ConsenSys could conduct its IPO, which would significantly increase the probability of a token launch before this date.
- Buying YES for 30/9 appears more reasonable. At that time, the market may have stabilized with congressional seats re elected and a new Fed chair supporting Trump’s rate cut policies. Q3 and Q4 are also typically recovery periods for the crypto market, making it relatively reasonable for ConsenSys to IPO and for MASK to launch a token.
Overall, at present, users only have limited information to analyze this bet. Odds will continue to change based on IPO developments from ConsenSys or statements from Lubin.
Monitoring Season 2 and hints related to rewards from MetaMask’s X account will also help users understand the project’s intentions and adjust their positions accordingly.
Conclusion
At the current time, the probability of MetaMask launching a token before mid 2026 is relatively low. The Points Program has not yet shown clear TGE signals, while ConsenSys does not face strong pressure to rush a token launch while the project continues to operate stably.
The most reasonable scenario for $MASK, if it happens, would likely fall in Q3 or Q4 2026, coinciding with a market recovery phase and ConsenSys’ IPO plans.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice, and Whales Market is not responsible for any of your investment decisions.
FAQs
Q1. Is MetaMask planning to launch its own token in 2026?
At present, MetaMask has not officially confirmed any plan to launch a native token in 2026. Market expectations are mainly based on ecosystem activity, IPO timing, and community speculation rather than formal announcements.
Q2. What factors could influence a MetaMask token launch timeline?
Key factors include ConsenSys’ IPO schedule, regulatory developments in the United States, market conditions, and the structure of future MetaMask Points Program seasons.
Q3. Does the MetaMask Points Program guarantee a future token airdrop?
No. The Points Program currently provides engagement incentives but does not guarantee that rewards will be distributed in the form of a MetaMask token.
Q4. How does ConsenSys’ IPO affect the possibility of a MetaMask launch?
An IPO could increase the likelihood of a token launch by aligning corporate fundraising with ecosystem expansion, but the company may also delay token issuance to avoid regulatory risks.
Q5. Where can investors track updates about a potential MetaMask token launch?
Investors should monitor official MetaMask and ConsenSys announcements, Joseph Lubin’s statements, and on-chain or prediction market data such as Whales Prediction.