Here is a complete guide to making predictions on Polymarket, the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform with over $6B in trading volume. This guide covers everything from setting up your wallet to placing your first prediction and claiming winnings.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform built on Polygon that allows users to bet on real-world events using USDC. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket enables participants to trade on outcomes across politics, sports, crypto, economics, and pop culture.
Unlike traditional betting platforms, Polymarket operates peer-to-peer where prices reflect collective wisdom of all participants. The platform has raised over $2.28B in funding, including a $2B investment from Intercontinental Exchange, valuing Polymarket at approximately $9B.
How Polymarket Works
- Binary Markets: Every market asks a yes-or-no question (e.g., "Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?"). Users buy "Yes" or "No" shares.
- Price as Probability: Share prices range from $0.01 to $1.00, reflecting probability. If "Yes" shares trade at $0.72, the market assigns a 72% probability to that outcome.
- Settlement: Winning shares become worth $1 USDC each. If you bought at $0.72 and win, you profit $0.28 per share.
- Decentralized Oracle: Polymarket uses UMA's oracle system to verify outcomes fairly and transparently.
- Trading Fees: The platform charges 1-2% on transactions but doesn't take positions against users.
How to Deposit and Withdraw
Deposit USDC
Before you can start making predictions, you need to fund your Polymarket account with USDC on the Polygon network.
- After connecting your wallet, click "Deposit" in your account dashboard
- Copy the wallet address displayed on screen
- Send USDC from your wallet or exchange to that address
Important: Make sure to select the Polygon network when transferring. You can withdraw USDC directly from CEX exchanges like Binance to the address Polymarket provides.
Alternatively, if you already have USDC in your connected wallet on Polygon, you can use the "Wallet" feature to transfer directly. The entire process typically takes 5-10 minutes.
Withdraw Funds
To withdraw your funds from Polymarket:
- Go to your Portfolio page
- Click "Withdraw"
- Enter the amount of USDC you want to withdraw
- Specify the destination address (your wallet or exchange)
- Confirm the transaction
Your USDC will be transferred to your specified address on the Polygon network. From there, you can bridge to other networks, convert to other assets, or withdraw to fiat through an exchange.
Note: Polymarket does not charge withdrawal fees, though you may incur small gas fees for the Polygon network transaction.
How to Make Predictions on Polymarket
While Polymarket has not officially confirmed the launch of a token or airdrop, there have been hints from the founder suggesting it might be coming. For instance, CEO Shayne Coplan recently tweeted a list of major cryptocurrencies including $POLY with a thinking emoji, fueling speculation about a potential token. This makes it a strong potential airdrop opportunity, especially given the platform's massive funding from top investors.
Here are some activities that could potentially be used as airdrop criteria:
- Trading volume on Polymarket
- Number of transactions
- Profit/loss ratio
To meet these criteria, you can follow these steps:
Step 1: Set Up Account
Although network fees are very low, you should prepare a certain amount of USDC to save time when creating trading volume.
- Visit Polymarket
- Click "Sign Up" in the top right corner
- Connect your crypto wallet like MetaMask, Rabby Wallet, or Coinbase Wallet
Step 2: Choose Events to Predict
Select the events you want to bet on. Note that depending on the event, Polymarket will have different ways of determining results.
Example: Let's choose to bet on "Fed decision in October?". For this market, Polymarket will take results from official Federal Reserve announcements.
Step 3: Understanding Order Types
Polymarket offers two types of orders to give you flexibility in how you trade:
Market Orders
Market orders execute immediately at the current best available price. This is ideal when you want to enter or exit a position quickly.
How it works:
- Click "Buy Yes" or "Buy No"
- Enter your USDC amount
- Your order fills instantly at the current market price
- You receive shares immediately
Example: If "Yes" shares are trading at 2.3¢ and you place a market order for $10, you'll receive approximately 434 shares immediately.
Limit Orders
Limit orders allow you to set a specific price at which you're willing to buy or sell shares. Your order will only execute when the market reaches your desired price.
How it works:
- Select "Limit" instead of "Market"
- Enter your desired price per share
- Enter the number of shares you want
- Your order appears in the order book
- It executes only when someone matches your price
Example: If "Yes" shares currently trade at 5¢ but you believe the price will drop, you can place a limit order to buy at 1¢. Your order will only fill if the price falls to that level.
Benefits of Limit Orders:
- Better price control
- Can earn liquidity rewards by providing market depth
- Useful for planning entry/exit points
- May partially fill as traders match portions of your order
Note: Limit orders for sports markets are automatically cancelled once the game begins.
Step 4: Wait for Results or Take Profit/Loss Early
Polymarket operates like a DEX, so you can:
- Wait until the result is announced, or
- Lock in profits/losses immediately by selecting the Sell button.
Example based on the image:
- You choose to bet on 50+ bps decrease and buy Yes at 2.3¢.
- If you invest 10 USDC, you might receive around 434.78 shares (depending on the system calculation).
- If the probability increases later (e.g., to 10%), the price per share could rise to 10¢, making your total bet value approximately 43.48 USDC.
- At this point, you can sell to lock in your profit.
You can repeat this process multiple times to increase trading volume without waiting for the final result!
Important Notes:
- Trading on Polymarket is heavily influenced by news. Consider carefully before participating in any type of betting
- Trading volume on some Polymarket events is quite low, so you should consider carefully before deciding to bet large amounts
- Focus on high-liquidity markets like major political events, Fed decisions, or popular crypto predictions to ensure you can enter and exit positions easily
Conclusion
Polymarket offers a transparent, blockchain-based approach to prediction markets where users can put their knowledge to work. With its accurate track record in forecasting major events, the platform demonstrates the power of market-based predictions.
While Polymarket provides an accessible way to engage with prediction markets, it's essential to understand the risks involved and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Users are responsible for complying with local laws and regulations.
FAQs
Q1: Do I need crypto experience?
No. Polymarket offers email sign-up with fiat deposits (credit card, bank transfer), accessible for beginners.
Q2: What's the minimum amount to start?
No official minimum, but $10-$50 is recommended for learning.
Q3: Will Polymarket launch a token?
Polymarket does not yet have an official token. However, there has been speculation about a potential POLY token launch and airdrop based on hints from the team. No official announcement has been made as of October 2025. If a token launches, it may be available for pre-market trading on platforms like Whales Market.
Q4: What is the Polymarket token pre-market price?
As of October 16, 2025, Polymarket has not launched a token yet. If it does, you may be able to trade it on Whales Market before CEX listings like Binance or Bybit.
Q5: Can I withdraw funds anytime?
Yes. Sell shares at current prices and withdraw USDC before resolution. After resolution, redeem winning shares for $1 USDC each.
Q6: What happens if I lose?
Your shares become worthless and you lose your USDC investment. This is why diversification matters.
Q7: How is Polymarket funded?
Raised over $2.3B including $2B from ICE (NYSE parent). Previous rounds led by Founders Fund, Blockchain Capital, and others at valuations from $350M to $9B.