The market is currently in a phase that tests investors' patience. Holders face a crucial decision: maintain their positions in anticipation of further gains, or proactively mitigate risk due to a potential deeper correction that could significantly impact their profit and loss.
Simultaneously, uncertainties surrounding Japanese bond yields are contributing to a "risk-off" sentiment, making capital more cautious across the entire market.
Bitcoin's On-Chain Signals
Given this backdrop, it's understandable that Bitcoin's on-chain indicators aren't showing the same robust recovery seen in the second quarter. While the STH NUPL index previously surged after a period of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), it's now firmly stuck in negative territory, reflecting persistent negative psychological pressure. This FUD seems to be penetrating the very fabric of the network.
- Miner Reserves Declining: Data reveals that miner reserves have decreased by approximately 900 BTC in just two days, equating to nearly $76 million entering the market.
- Miner Profitability Under Pressure: When compared to average mining costs, it's evident that many miners are operating at a loss, intensifying obligatory selling pressure.
Overall, Bitcoin's on-chain signals continue to convey the familiar message of a capitulation phase.
Bitcoin Holds Above $85,000 USD Amid Selling Pressure from Miners
Despite increasing pressures, Bitcoin has steadfastly remained above $85,000 USD. This resilience raises a crucial question: is the classic "Buy the Fear" strategy beginning to take effect, helping to establish and reinforce Bitcoin's price floor?
Whale Activity and Market Structure
From a macro perspective, the supportive role of "whales" is increasingly becoming a decisive factor in the market.
- Japanese Interest Rate Hike: The most apparent pressure originates from Japan, where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently raised interest rates by 25 basis points – the highest increase in 30 years. This action has spread caution throughout global financial markets.
- Spot Market Demand Subdued: Consequently, demand for Bitcoin in the spot market remains relatively sluggish, especially as US investors largely remain on the sidelines. The lack of a clear return of capital fosters a wait-and-see attitude.
However, this very quietness and volatility are quietly creating a more constructive market structure for Bitcoin. "Weak hands" are gradually being eliminated, while "strong hands" – primarily whales – are taking advantage of the supply.
Whale Accumulation
Notably, nearly 50% of Bitcoin's realized cap currently stems from new purchases by whales. The realized cap reflects the price at which BTC coins were last moved on the blockchain. When a significant portion of this value is tied to recent purchases by large wallets, it suggests a substantial transfer of Bitcoin supply to investors with a higher likelihood of long-term holding.
Technically, this supply shift helps explain Bitcoin's remarkable stability. Despite pervasive FUD and existing selling pressure, BTC has recorded four consecutive weeks of closing within a narrow range, holding above the $85,000 USD region. If this structure persists, the scenario of a medium-term Bitcoin bottom formation may be approaching.
Analysts' Perspectives on Bitcoin Demand
Some analysts suggest that reduced demand for Bitcoin signals a new bear market.
Should you sell Bitcoin to buy gold at this time?
- Market Sentiment. Investor patience is being tested amid market uncertainties and concerns about a deeper correction.
- Miner Selling Pressure. Miners are facing profitability challenges, contributing to selling pressure in the market.
- Whale Accumulation. Large investors ("whales") are accumulating Bitcoin, potentially providing price support.
- Price Stability. Despite selling pressure, Bitcoin has shown resilience, holding above $85,000.
Table: Summary of Key Market Factors
| Factor | Description | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Investor Patience | Market volatility and uncertainty are testing investors' willingness to hold their positions. | Could lead to increased selling pressure if investors lose confidence. |
| Miner Selling Pressure | Miners are facing profitability challenges and may be forced to sell their holdings to cover costs. | Adds to the overall selling pressure in the market, potentially driving prices down. |
| Whale Accumulation | Large investors are accumulating Bitcoin, indicating long-term confidence in the asset. | Provides potential price support and reduces the available supply of Bitcoin, which could lead to price increases in the long term. |
| Bitcoin Price Stability | Despite selling pressure, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively stable price above $85,000 USD. | Suggests underlying strength in the market and could indicate that a bottom is forming. |
Disclaimer: This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. We are not liable for any investment decisions you make.
FAQs
Why is Bitcoin holding above $85,000 USD despite the selling pressure from miners?
Bitcoin is showing resilience due to potential "Buy the Fear" strategies and accumulation by whales. These "strong hands" are taking advantage of the supply as "weak hands" exit the market, helping to maintain the price floor.
What impact is the selling pressure from miners having on the Bitcoin market?
Miner reserves are declining, with around 900 BTC recently entering the market, due to profitability pressures. This selling pressure contributes to a capitulation phase, but is being countered by whale accumulation.
Will the "Buy the Fear" strategy reappear and sustain Bitcoin's price amid current market uncertainties?
It's possible, as the article suggests whale activity is supporting the price. The quietness in the spot market is creating a more constructive market structure for Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for a "Buy the Fear" resurgence.
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